Google, Facebook and Apple: Speculation about Payment Moves

Over the last couple of days, the blogosphere has been rife with speculation about the big three tech players' moves in the payment space.


Apple: yesterday a number of newspapers and blogs reported that Apple will not include NFC in the iPhone 5 and postpone its launch til 2012.  With Apple's history of popularising new technologies, this is clearly a blow for the NFC-afficionados.


Facebook: over the last few days there have been reports about Facebook Payments, a subsidiary that Facebook appears to have incorporated in Florida in December of last year.  According to Facebook itself, this subsidiary is simply intended to handle payments to developers related to its Credits program.  However, industry analysts and commentators have interpreted this subsidiary, along with related moves, as a clear indication that Facebook is moving deeper into payments, including offline payments.

Google: today there have been several reports that Google is preparing two NFC pilots; one is NYC and a second in San Francisco.  Most commentators agree that Google is likely to use its Nexus S phone, which is currently configured to read NFC tags, but would be 'unlocked' to write tags to facilitate payments. 

According to the sources, Google will pay for the installation of “thousands” of NFC-enabled terminals across retail locations in both cities. The report speculates that each user will have not only their purchasing information but coupons, gift-card balances, loyalty cards and other subscriptions loaded onto the phone.

With so much speculation and 'expert testimony', its critical to take all this with a pinch of salt.  What is for sure is that there are high expectations for non-tradition, technology players to enter, and revolutionise, the payments space. 

We also know that this is a highly complex area, that deals not only with technological and infrastructure complexity, but also with the human psyche, which is notoriously averse to risk and slow at adapting to change.  I would therefore not be surprised if mobile payments becomes more of an evolution than a revolution.